McCain in 5-point national lead over Obama

A Reuters/Zogby poll released today shows a 5 point lead by John McCain over Barack Obama: Mccain 46 to Obama 41. Read the story here.

McCain at the Fair

In two commentaries for the Fair Times, the newspaper of the Neshoba County Fair, I wrote about John McCain's enthusiastic support there.

First in this piece about the speeches by Senator Roger Wicker and Ronnie Musgrove. (Read the full article here: Wednesday's main event: Wicker v. Musgrove)

The most energetic and authentic cheers of Wicker's speech came when he said he was supporting John McCain for President. Wicker said Obama was supporting and helping to elect Musgrove and that John Kerry supports Musgrove. Wicker said that people may wonder where Musgrove stands but "you won't have to wonder with Roger Wicker."

Next in this piece on Governor Haley Barbour's speech. (Read the full article here: Barbour speaks on Musgrove, McCain, Medicaid)

Barbour moved from Musgrove to other national politics. "I wish John McCain were here" he said to thunderous applause. McCain must be the most popular politician not at the Neshoba County Fair. Every speaker who invoked his name received a louder and more energetic response than to anything else. A new Rasmussen Reports poll released yesterday says McCain "has nearly doubled his lead over Barack Obama in Mississippi" and "now leads his Democratic opponent by 11 points 52% to 41%, after maintaining a 6-point lead for the previous two months."

Barbour continued, "Frankly I wish Senator Obama were here, too, because I believe the more people learn about Obama's record, the better McCain is going to do." Barbour praised Obama as a great performer saying, "He could sell Chevrolets to a Ford dealer." Barbour said Obama and his liberal Democrat colleagues have said no to drilling off-shore; no to drilling in ANWR; no to drilling on federal land in the Rockies; no to more refineries; no to more nuclear plants; no to increased domestic oil production and "out of that series of No's, Obama created the slogan, 'Yes, we can.'" Barbour later referred to the presumptive Democratic nominee as "Nobama."

The only name to rival the applause of John McCain at the Fair was when State Auditor Stacey Pickering invoked the name of his uncle Judge Charles Pickering, Sr. as an example of the type of good judges Roger Wicker would fight for in the Senate.

Mississippi: McCain 52%, Obama 41%

A new Rasmussen Reports poll says McCain has opened an 11-point lead over Obama in Mississippi.

McCain now leads his Democratic opponent by 11 points 52% to 41%, after maintaining a 6-point lead for the previous two months in a row. Counting “leaners,” McCain leads 54% to 42%.

The Republican candidate has gained slightly in terms of favorables. He is now viewed favorably by 64% of voters here, up from 58% in June. Obama has held roughly steady from last month, with 47% viewing him favorably and 51% unfavorably.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain is given a 85.0% chance of carrying Mississippi in November. The state is classified as “Likely Republican” by the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Half of Mississippi voters rate economic issues as their number one concern this election cycle, followed by 26% who rank national security at the top. Seventy percent (70%) of Mississippi voters say lowering the price of gas and oil is more important than protecting the environment, but 20% disagree. This is significantly higher than the national averages on this question.

There is a growing feeling among voters throughout the country that the U.S. and its allies are winning the war on terror, 59% of voters in Mississippi feel that way, while 19% say the terrorists are winning and 16% say it’s a draw.

Forty-one percent (41%) say President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job, while the identical number (41%) rate his performance as poor.

McCain Signs at Neshoba Fair

Volunteers made sure that John McCain's campaign was represented at this year's Neshoba County Fair in Philadelphia, Mississippi. Signs dress the light poles inside the Fair and yard signs line the interstates coming into this, the annual epicenter of Mississippi politics.
Dozens of McCain signs; zero Obama signs.

Executed Criminal's Last Wish: Vote Obama

It seems here was a Mississippian who supported Barack Obama.

Before he died Wednesday evening, death row inmate Dale Leo Bishop apologized to his victim's family, thanked America and urged people to vote for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama. "For those who oppose the death penalty and want to see it end, our best bet is to vote for Barack Obama because his supporters have been working behind the scenes to end this practice," Bishop said.

(Read the full story at the Clarion Ledger: Bishop put to death: Apology precedes execution)

Media Hearts Obama

You saw John McCain's ad "Love" below, but now you can see another kind of love, the love that the media has for Barack Obama. Don't expect them to be fair or objective in covering this race. Take a look at these clips (and vote for your favorite love music to go along) at JohnMcCain.com of the media swooning for Obama.

Mississippi Democratic Party spins Obama

The Mississippi Democratic Party continues to spin that Barack Obama has a shot at winning Mississippi. They like to cite the historic turnout in the Democratic Primary earlier this year as evidence. 434,110 voters picked a candidate in the Democratic Primary; most of them (61.2%) picked Obama. But that leaves 168,608 Democrats who chose someone else. Now many of them will come around a tow the party line and back Obama. But a lot of them just couldn't wait until November to vote against Obama. And those Democrats - call them Clinton Democrats, call them Reagan Democrats, call them Fordice Democrats - will join with Republicans and independents to vote for John McCain. Does Obama have a shot at Mississippi? Sure. There are only two ways to run: scared or unopposed. If we run scared, work hard, contribute, and turn out our voters, then Mississippi will be well within John McCain's winning column.

Southeast Campaign HQ

To contact McCain's Southeast Campaign HQ - the region including Mississippi - see below:

Southeast Regional Headquarters
420 East Jefferson Street
3rd Floor
Tallahassee, FL 32302
Office number is 850-391-4219
Office fax is 850-681-2063
Email Mississippi staff at mississippi@johnmccain.com

John McCain Ad: Love

Meet the new Democrat, same as the old Democrat

Back in the Spring, I told people the best scenario for Republicans would be for the Clinton-Obama contest to continue all the way to the Democratic Convention with the Clintons using the super delegates to win and disenchanting all the young and progressive energy in the Democratic Party two months before the election.

I was wrong. That would have created a liberal martyr and made Obama that much more powerful in four years.

The best scenario now is playing out: Obama is discrediting himself with his base.

The hope for a new transformational politician has faded. The hope of an elevated debate on the issues became this threat by Obama regarding an ugly general election campaign, "If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun." It is hard to be an idealist and a pragmatist at the same time.

Then came policy flip-flops.

Progressives love public financing to take "big money" out of politics. Obama pledged to run with public financing. Then he discovered the free market (as he calls it a "parallel public financing system" one in which the public decides...aka private financing) provides more resources and bailed on public financing. The left forgave him, after all, they want to win and it’s only the most wonkish intellectual liberals who want public financing anyway.

Then came the other shoes to drop. Moderating his position on abortion and guns; moving conservative on the issue of the death penalty; execution for bin Laden; he once opposed cracking down on businesses that hire illegal immigrants and now he is for it.

Liberals see all these as troubling, but they are pragmatic, they want to win.

The defining issue first distinguishing Obama and Clinton: the Iraq War. Obama was for full and immediate withdrawal within 16 months of taking office. MoveOn.org was dancing in the streets. Now Obama says he will listen to the military commanders, like President Bush is doing, and may "refine" his position.

Say it ain't so, O.

Obama was going to filibuster the FISA bill and stand up for all the liberal bloggers who didn't want the government spying on Americans and who were impassioned that big telecom companies not get immunity from lawsuits.

Instead he voted for the measure. Nobama, please, Nobama.

Markos Moulitsas, Grand High Pooba of liberal bloggers said before the vote, "He (Obama) spent the last two years telling us how he's going to be the leader of the free world ... not to mention the Democratic party and this nation.... I think there are people like us that are hoping to see some of that leadership.... I don't want to hear talk about leadership... I want to see him do it... If he does not, I think we may worry that he's just one of these spineless Democrats who are more afraid of controversy.. than doing the right thing."

Now Art Levine who has written for every major left wing publication since the Port Huron Statement (The New Republic, Mother Jones, Slate, Salon) posts "Will Netroots 'Hold their Noses' in Backing Obama?" He posted his comments at The Huffington Post. Et Tu Netrootae?

Some bloggers are willing to give Obama another shot and let his pick for vice president shore up his base. Let me get this straight, the nonpartisan National Journal rankings place Obama as the most liberal U.S. Senator and he needs a running mate to shore up his left wing? Who is he going to pick? Ralph Nader? Hugo Chavez?

The mainstream media is comparing Obama to McCain. The left wing is comparing Obama to Bush. If this keeps up, we'll all be comparing Obama to John Kerry when this is done with.

The New York Times: Obama supporters on the far left cry foul
The New Yorker: Obama's flip-flop flap
Midwest Voices: Obama's FISA flip-flop angers liberal bloggers

Polls: Mississippi Likes John McCain

Associated Content contends Mississippi will go for McCain.

Although the Mississippi primary showed Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton 61 to 31 percent, recent research polls show John McCain has a strong lead over Obama in a state that is 39 percent African-American. Mississippi is the only state with this large an African-American percentage, according to the 2000 census.

Mississippi is considered a Republican state, as no Democrat has won the state since 1976 when Jimmy Carter ran for President.

Rasmussen shows McCain with an 80 percent chance of winning Mississippi's six votes in November.

Pollsters Rasmussen Reports (5/29/08) McCain over Obama 50 over 44.
Research 2000 (5/23/08) Research 2000 shows McCain is the favorite 54% to Obamas 39%.
Survey USA (3/6/08) gave McCain the lead over Obama 54% to 41%.

Read the full story here: Polls: Mississippi Likes John McCain (Hat Tip Y'all Politics)

Lott advising McCain on VP

The National Journal reports (It's Vetting Time!) that former Senator Trent Lott is one of the closest confidants of John McCain's search for his Vice President.

McCain's process is so secretive that his campaign won't even confirm Culvahouse's role. "We don't comment on the vice presidential search," said Steve Schmidt, a McCain campaign adviser. Another aide asked for "no comment" to be off the record. Internally, fewer than 10 senior staffers are permitted to advise McCain on the selection. Conversations about the process are limited to a circle of five key staff advisers and a few others, including former Sen. Trent Lott of Mississippi and Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. Campaign staffers who interact with the press are kept in the dark so that they have plausible deniability.

It is nice to know that a Mississippian is at the table for such an important selection.

Obama's Mississippi Challenge

This week in the Madison County Journal (Reasonably Right: The Obama challenge) I write about two anecdotes, that if a trend in other states, spells trouble in November for Barack Obama. First, while there has been a lot of talk about the Obama effect in voter turn out, it won't simply be a matter of Obama voters turning out in record numbers and anti-Obama voters responding. There are men and women across the country who believe in the person John McCain, like Jack McMillan in Leake County.

In that sliver of land between Edinburg and the Neshoba County line in East Mississippi sits an old country store with "Vote John McCain President" stencilled in black lettering inside a crudely painted American flag that adorns the west side of the simple, block structure.

There's a portable flashing sign out front off Mississippi 16 with "Vote McCain President" as well.

A grassy, gravel drive leads to two wooden Uncle Sam figures on the columns by the door.

Jack McMillan, the owner and proprietor, envisions the store as the McCain volunteer headquarters for Leake County. He plans a youth involvement program, volunteer phone banks, a get-out-the-vote rally, and campaign signs, hats and CDs of McCain speeches.

He has never done this before.

Now retired, McMillan worked for the state for many years and speaks of his service with Govs. Cliff Finch and William Winter (he compliments both) while explaining he has never been personally involved in "politics."

He is no Republican Party activist and his words reflect no passion for Republicans or partisanship. He speaks about America - about duty, honor, country - a reflection of McCain's image.

I never heard an ill word toward Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton (or any mention of them for that matter) and for McMillan, it seems, this election isn't about them. For him, John McCain is the man that can best lead this country. McCain is the reason McMillan is out of retirement and into politics for the first time in his life.

Older, rural, blue-collar voters in the South, Appalachia, and the Midwest, relate to McCain's image as a respected and seasoned servant of his country. They hear McCain speak of service to America with humility - almost as if he were courting the person America - cognizant of his own failures but honest to his promise that just as he has in the past, he will give every measure of service and sacrifice to her.

These voters are not looking for Obama's change for the future. They have had enough of the future and want to trade in their risky aggressive high-yield stocks for the security and comfort of a trusty treasury CD. They may not be on blogs or YouTube, and they may be unable to leave their responsibilities to attend rock-star rallies; but like the fabled tortoise, they are steady, persistent, and unshakeable: to borrow from Richard Nixon, a silent majority. Besides the South, they put states like West Virginia and Indiana into McCain's column. Obama lost both states to Clinton in their primaries.

Here are a couple of pictures from McMillan's future Leake County McCain HQ.




Second, while a lot was made of McCain's challenges early on with maintaining and exciting his conservative base, Obama could face problems with moderates in the Democratic Party who supported Clinton.

Eighty miles southwest of McMillan is my home in the Belhaven neighborhood of Jackson. I didn't poll everyone at my street's recent block party, but if I was not the lone Republican, I was at least in a silent minority. Talk turned to the presidential race and the excitement about Barack Obama. No one cared that I plan to vote for John McCain. They've seen my yard signs. I'm a Republican. Republicans vote for McCain. But what turned up the temperature on the late May day in Mississippi was the discovery that several Clinton supporters were also voting for McCain.

I was intrigued to hear the discussion first-hand. A couple of the neighbors raised questions of competence and experience: they believe Clinton possesses those qualities, Obama does not. Regardless of ideology, they want an adult in the White House. These Democrats feel George W. Bush is an example of immature leadership and Barack Obama would be the Democratic version of him.

One neighbor is from Illinois. She notes just four years ago Obama was a state senator from Chicago dominated by ward-bosses, divisive men like Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and indicted influence peddlers like Tony Rezko. She describes Obama as an old-style street politician cloaked in the illusion of transformative rhetoric. She would never vote for Obama, my Democrat neighbor said.

A Gallup Poll in March reported that 28 percent of Clinton supporters would vote for McCain rather than Obama: this includes a large number of Democrat leaning independents, conservative Democrats, moderate Democrats and Hispanic Democrats. Those numbers put states like Pennsylvania and Ohio closer to McCain (Clinton beat Obama in both primaries) and shores up McCain leaning but contested states like Florida and Virginia.

The Jackson Clarion Ledger wrote yesterday that "Some hope Obama turns Miss. 'blue". These anecdotes don't spell victory in Mississippi (which most expect anyway) but might suggest broader national challenges for Obama.

Mississippi voters have chosen the Democrat nominee once since 1960: the born-again Baptist governor of Georgia Jimmy Carter against the unelected Nixon-pardoning Gerald Ford in 1976. Ford barely lost.

Democrats don't look to improve their record this year.

A recent Rasmussen poll puts Obama six points behind McCain, 50 to 44 percent; and a Research 2000 poll puts the race at 54 percent McCain to 39 percent Obama.

No one is surprised that Mississippi is John McCain country, but if these examples indicate a broader national trend, then Barack Obama faces a cultural and electoral challenge in November.

You can read the full uninterrupted column at the Madison County Journal: The Obama challenge.

The General Election Begins

Don't Be Bamboozled