Campaign Manager Update

To: Interested Parties
From: Rick Davis, Campaign Manager
Date: October 31, 2008
RE: The Final Push

The State of the Campaign

If your television is tuned to cable news as frequently as ours are here at campaign headquarters, you have seen the pundits say John McCain and his campaign are done. And, if you've followed this race since the beginning, this is clearly a song you've heard before. I wanted to take some time today to give you some insight on the state of the race as we see it.

An AP poll released this morning revealed a very telling fact: ONE out of every SEVEN voters is undecided. That means, if 130 million voters turn out on Tuesday, 18.5 million of them have yet to make up their mind. With that many votes on the table and the tremendous movement we've seen in this race, I believe we are in a very competitive campaign.

Here's why:

All the major polls have shown a tightening in the race and a significant narrowing of the numbers. In John McCain's typical pattern, he is closing strong and surprising the pundits. We believe this race is winnable, and if the trajectory continues, we will surpass the 270 Electoral votes needed on Election Night.

National Polls: Major polls last week showed John McCain trailing by double-digit margins - but by the middle of this week, we were within the margin of error on four national tracking surveys. In fact, the Gallup national tracking survey showed the race in a virtual tie 2 days this week.

State Polls:

Iowa - Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days. We took Obama's lead from the double digits to a very close race. That is why you see Barack Obama visiting the state in the final days, trying to stem his losses. It is too little, too late. Like many other Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain's column.

The Southwest - It is no secret that Republican candidates in the Southwest have to focus on winning over enough Latino and Hispanic voters in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado to carry them to victory. John McCain has overcome challenges Republicans face, and has made up tremendous ground in these states with these voters. For these voters, the choice has become clear, and you have seen a big change in the numbers. John McCain is now winning enough voters to perform within the margin of error - putting these states within reach.

Colorado - Barack Obama tried to outspend our campaign in Colorado during the early weeks of October and finish off our candidate in Colorado. However, after our visit early this week, we saw a tremendous rebound in our poll position, and Colorado is back on the map.

Ohio and Pennsylvania - Everyone knows that vote rich Ohio and Pennsylvania will be key battlegrounds for this election. Between the two: 41 electoral votes and no candidate has gotten to the White House without Ohio. Senator McCain and Governor Palin have been campaigning non-stop in these key battleground states and tonight Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has pumped up our campaign at a rally in Columbus. Our position in these states is strong and undecided voters continue to have a very favorable impression of our candidate.
Obama campaign faces tremendous structural challenges in the final days of this campaign

Obama has a challenge hitting 50%: Barack Obama has not reached the 50% threshold in almost any the battleground state. He consistently is performing in the 45-48% range. When we look closely at the primary votes, we see a history of a candidate whose Election Day performance is often at or behind his final polling numbers. If this is true, our surge will leave Obama with even or under 50% of the vote on Election Day.

Early Vote:

The Obama campaign has promised that their early vote and absentee efforts will change the composition of the electorate. They have sold the press on a story that first time voters will turn out in droves this election cycle. Again, the facts undermine their argument. In our analysis of early voting and absentee votes to date: The composition of the electorate has not changed significantly and most folks who have voted early are high propensity voters who would have voted regardless of the high interest in this campaign.

Expanding the Field:

Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win.
The Final Barnstorm

On Monday, we will have a 14 state rally with our candidates crisscrossing the country trying to turn out our voters and sway the final undecided voters. Governor Palin will hit Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and Alaska in the final day of campaigning, while Senator McCain will travel from Tampa, Florida, to Virginia, then Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and finish the night in Prescott, Arizona. The enthusiasm and excitement we generate on Monday will be the electricity that powers our "Get Out the Vote" efforts on Tuesday.
On the Ground

Our field organization has tremendous energy and is out-performing the Bush campaign at the same time in 2004. This week our field organization crossed a huge threshold and began reaching more than one million voters per day, and by week's end will have contacted more than 5 million voters. Our phone centers are full and our rate of voter contact is significantly out-pacing the Bush campaign in 2004. We have the resources to do the voter contact necessary to support the surge we are seeing in our polling with old fashioned grassroots outreach.

On the Airwaves:

In the final days of the campaign, our television presence will be bigger and broader than the Obama campaign's presence. The full Republican effort - the RNC's Independent Expenditure and the McCain campaign will out-buy Barack Obama and the Democrats by just about 10 million dollars.

In short:

The McCain campaign is surging in the final 72 hours. Our grassroots campaign is vibrant and communicating to voters in a very powerful way. Our television presence is strong. And, we have a secret ingredient - A candidate who will never quit and who will never stop fighting for you and for your families.

Joe The Plumber

Volunteer & Palin Conference Call

**Make Phone Calls To Battleground States From Home**

If you have twenty minutes to make twenty calls from home, you can make a difference. Go to this link www.johnmccain.com/PhoneBank and you can get the names, numbers, and script necessary to volunteer from home.

**Volunteers Needed for 72 Hour Operations**

The race for the White House is coming down to the wire. With less than a week until Election Day, the McCain-Palin ticket needs your immediate help to ensure victory. We are urging Mississippi supporters to come to the battleground states of Florida and North Carolina to volunteer. We need an army of grassroots volunteers in Florida and North Carolina during the final 72 hour Get Out the Vote effort.

Signup Today:

John McCain has fought for America his entire life; join his campaign in fighting for the future of our country over these final six days. If you have interest in going to Florida or North Carolina to volunteer, please send an email to either fldeployment@johnmccain.com or ncdeployment@johnmccain.com. We ask that you provide the following information in your email: Name, Town and County of Residence, Phone Number (Home, Work, Cell), Email Address, Dates You Are Interested in Volunteering.

**Join Super Saturday and Sarah Palin Conference Call**

Last week's McCain Nation Super Saturday house parties were a great success. Our supporters across the country made calls and knocked on doors to get-out-the-vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin. The mainstream media's polls are getting tight and we're encouraged at our momentum.

This Saturday, November 1st, join Governor Sarah Palin on the kick-off conference call at noon Central Time. Governor Palin will join us from the campaign trail and give us a quick update on the state of the campaign and take caller questions.

You can sign up to host or attend a Super Saturday event at www.johnmccain.com/mccainnation. Super Saturday participants will be able to jump on an exclusive conference call with Governor Sarah Palin.

The polls show our team gaining ground across the country and in critical swing states. Now is not the time to sit on the sidelines, now is the time to re-double our efforts to win on Election Day.

McCain Leads Obama; Wicker Leads Musgrove

The Mobile Press Register reported a poll on Sunday that puts John McCain leading Barack Obama in Mississippi 46% to 33%; and Roger Wicker leading Ronnie Musgrove 45% to 32%. Now Rasmussen Reports, which encourages undecided respondents to make a choice, has released a poll showing McCain leading Obama 53% to 45% and Wicker leading Musgrove 54% to 43%.

Barbour Campaigns for McCain in Virginia

Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour is campaigning in Virginia for John McCain. Former Governor Ray Mabus is doing the same for Barack Obama. Can there be any better illustration?

Barbour connects with the gun shooting, pickup driving, whiskey drinking, church going, Southern voter. Mabus is the Mississippi Obama: elitist. He connects with the cheese eating, Lexus cruising, wine tasting, Ivy League, liberal types.

Please, Savus from Mabus again!

Former Sen. George Allen, R-Va., and Todd Palin, husband of McCain running mate Sarah Palin, have stumped along Virginia’s North Carolina and Tennessee state lines, including Sunday’s NASCAR race in Martinsville.

Mississippi’s Republican governor, Haley Barbour, joined Allen on Monday, and Barbour campaigned Tuesday in coal country with former Virginia Attorney General Jerry W. Kilgore.

“My impression is there aren’t a whole lot of undecideds out here,” Barbour said in a telephone interview.

After weeks of bad news about the economy that had hurt McCain, Barbour said he didn’t expect crowds at McCain events in Virginia to be as large or loud as they were — “stronger than an acre of garlic,” as he put it in his deep drawl.

The area where Barbour campaigned, Virginia’s 9th Congressional District, blends pro-gun, Bible Belt social conservatism with defiant, United Mine Workers labor activism.

Phone Bank From Home

You want to do something that makes a difference in this race from Mississippi? You can phone bank from home into battleground states using campaign provided materials and targeted names and phone numbers. You can make a difference in this campaign, an hour a night, from your house.

Last month, our campaign launched a grassroots effort to put you in touch with voters all across the country through our online phone bank. As Senator Barack Obama spends millions of dollars bombarding voters with negative and misleading information about John McCain, we need your help to fight back and expose Barack Obama's tax and spend liberal record. Can you set aside a couple of hours each week to make calls for John McCain and Sarah Palin? You are the most effective surrogate we have in this campaign. By reaching out to undecided voters, one by one, you are taking a crucial step towards victory.

Follow this link today to make calls: www.JohnMcCain.com/PhoneBank

Volunteer for Florida, North Carolina

The McCain-Palin Campaign is looking for volunteers from Mississippi to deploy to Florida or North Carolina for the final days of the campaign.

Can you come to Florida or North Carolina for a day, a weekend, a week, or the final 72 hours of the campaign?

If you are interested in deploying to Florida or North Carolina at your own expense, please e-mail sedeployment@johnmccain.com and provide the following information in your email:

Name
Town and County of Residence
Phone Number (Home, Work, Cell)
Email Address
Dates You are Interested in Volunteering
Preferred Location in FL or NC

I deployed for Bush 2004 to south Florida and let me tell you, in addition to the excitement of working on a campaign, the day after the election it is still warm enough to get in the ocean. I imagine that the mountains of North Carolina would also be a beautiful place to go work.