California Dreaming?

National pundits claim the Republican brand is damaged. Mississippi's First Congressional District seat was won by a Democrat. Voters, weary of war in a weakened economy, want some kind of change. In this kind of atmosphere, could California be in play for John McCain? Brian Perry discusses the opportunity this week in the Neshoba County Democrat: McCain California dreaming?.

When George W. Bush won Florida in 2000, he won the presidency. Four years later, the White House came down to Ohio. Ohio 2004 seemed a rerun of Florida 2000: small margins, voting machine questions, a high profile Republican secretary of state, and whoever prevailed in Ohio would be President of the United State: the Electoral College majority hung in the balance. Any challenge in the Buckeye State whimpered out as Bush had a small but clear majority with 50.8 percent of the vote.

The seeds of Bush's Ohio victory were sewn a year prior in Massachusetts.

In November 2003, four judges on the seven-person Massachusetts Supreme Court, overturned a state law to establish America's only state permitting gay marriage. In response, 11 states placed defense of marriage measures on their ballots the following year. They all passed by wide margins.

In Ohio, Bush beat Senator John Kerry by fewer than 150,000 votes in an election where 5.7 million voters went to the polls and 3.3 million voted to uphold traditional marriage.

If four judges in Massachusetts could provide the boost needed by Bush to win a second term in 2004, could four judges in California do the same for John McCain in 2008?

In 2000, 61 percent of California voters approved a traditional marriage ballot initiative: Proposition 22. Now the California Supreme Court in a 4-3 decision, with the equivalent of a judicial super veto, declared that marriage in the state must be allowed for same-sex couples.

Already, conservatives have filed a provision with more than a million signatures to amend the California Constitution to make marriage only between one man and one woman for the California November ballot. Polls show a majority of Californians support the amendment.

For McCain to win California this year, Republicans would need a conservative surge in turn out, some independent and Democratic crossover, and a strong showing among Hispanic voters.

A traditional marriage amendment could produce the conservative surge. McCain's maverick style and perceived moderation could provide the cross-party appeal that some Western voters need to support the Arizona Senator. Finally, McCain's polling shows him in reach of surpassing the record 44 percent of the Hispanic vote that Bush carried in 2004. Catholic Hispanics trend against gay marriage and may make the difference for McCain in California.

Republicans haven't carried California in a Presidential election since George H.W. Bush whipped Michael Dukakis 20 years ago. McCain's Western base and Hispanic appeal alone can't deliver California, especially facing Obama's rock-star appeal and fundraising prowess. But throw a conservative mobilizing issue like the defense of marriage into the mix, and McCain might be able to squeak out a win.

Will Obama be another Dukakis or is McCain just California dreaming? If McCain does carry California, his campaign should send thank you cards to four judges in California and four judges in Massachusetts.

Read the full column here: McCain California dreaming?